Iran did not accept the peace talks proposal submitted by the United States this time, and the atmosphere on the field suddenly became tense again. For the market, the first thing this news brings is not a sense of direction, but pressure. Will oil prices continue to rise, will global risk appetite fall again, and how the US stock market opens tonight? These will immediately become things that funds are watching. The market has actually figured out the logic these days. As long as the news moves towards the direction of "continuing to fight", "not discussing", and "expanding conflicts", the US stock market will start to be under pressure, and Bitcoin will also find it difficult to stabilize. Many people tend to lean towards safe haven assets for Bitcoin, but when this geopolitical conflict escalates, the market appears more like a risky asset. The US stock market falls, it follows suit; The market is starting to shrink its risk exposure, and it is also difficult for it to strengthen independently. The reason is not complicated. When the situation in the Middle East becomes tense, oil prices are prone to react. When oil prices move, the market will immediately worry about inflation and liquidity in the future. At this point, gold and crude oil are more likely to absorb emotions, while Bitcoin may not. It has large fluctuations, long trading times, and is most sensitive to emotions, often becoming a part of the positions that funds dispose of first. So if we continue to see Iran refusing peace talks, the United States increasing pressure, and the conflict expanding outward in the next few days, the cryptocurrency industry still needs to look in a cautious direction. Bitcoin may not immediately emerge from a deep unilateral decline, but it is not realistic to quickly rise in such an environment. Ethereum is usually weaker, and the pressure of counterfeiting will be more obvious. At this stage, betting on a comprehensive rebound will not have a high winning rate. The most noteworthy variables in the future are still a few very realistic ones. One is oil prices, another is the US stock market, and the other is whether there is a new turning point in negotiations. As long as these three things are not clearly moving in a positive direction, market sentiment will be difficult to truly recover. Even if there is a pullback in the cryptocurrency circle, it is more like emotional fluctuations and not quite like a comfortable new uptrend. At this time, it is not appropriate to be too hasty in trading. People with heavy positions first think about how to withstand fluctuations; People with light positions don't need to rush in just because they see a rebound. Wait until the situation shows signs of easing, oil prices fall a bit, and the US stock market stabilizes, and then see if Bitcoin will strengthen again. It will be smoother at that time. The current market trend still needs to be understood based on the real market situation. The tighter the situation in the Middle East, the easier it is for the market to lean towards defense first. At this stage, Bitcoin bears more pressure from risky assets rather than its role as a safe haven asset.