律动BlockBeats
律动BlockBeats|3月 26, 2026 11:04
Analysis: Bitcoin bear market enters later stage, with $64000 as important support level BlockBeats News: On March 26th, according to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin fell below $70000 again, with multiple online and technical indicators indicating that the current bear market is entering its later stages. In terms of on chain data, Bitcoin's net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) has fallen below 0.25, in the "hope/fear range". CryptoQuant analyst The Enigma Trader pointed out that this means that about 40% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin is in a loss making state, coupled with the "extreme panic" level of the Panic Greed Index falling to 15, "reflecting pain and uncertainty". He added that if NUPL rebounds to above 0.25, it will mark the entry into an optimistic range, which historically often occurs in sync with the strengthening of price momentum. Glassnode stated that the 7-day moving average relative to unrealized losses has stabilized at 15%. "Historically, resolving embedded losses at this level would require time, further price declines, or a sustained influx of fresh capital within a compressed period of time." In addition, the adjusted realized profits of Bitcoin entities have dropped from a peak of $3 billion per day in July 2025 to less than $100 million today, a decrease of over 96%. Glassnode called this "further evidence of demand depletion" and a "textbook feature of the transition from bear markets to the end stage. In terms of key price points, Bitcoin has been fluctuating within a range recently, with support at $64000 and resistance at $72000. Glassnode pointed out that Bitcoin is working hard to maintain a one week to one month holding cost base of $70200, but the accumulation of buying orders at this level is not solid enough, and the probability of falling below this level cannot be ignored until more solid buying orders are established. The main support below refers to the realized price of Bitcoin, which is approximately $54000; The upper resistance is located at the 1 to 3-month holding cost base of $82200, as well as the short-term holding concentration area above $84000. Technical analyst CryptoPatel stated that the recent rise of Bitcoin to $76000 is just a low high point, and the high time frame structure "points lower", with below $50000 being the next truly noteworthy area.
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