Qingyue's articles are always very comfortable to read, with a strong personal style and sharp language full of black humor—— The deeper the hand rubbing, the more I read, the more I love it This war is not impacting the prices of a single commodity But rather the basic input costs of the global industrial economy (energy, fertilizers, logistics, insurance) And these costs will bypass monetary policy Directly enter the supply side Forming a dilemma of 'raising interest rates cannot be suppressed, and not raising interest rates will lead to further loss of control' Especially the fertilizer grain chain, many people tend to overlook it The dependence of synthetic ammonia on natural gas is actually a colder reality behind it: Natural gas is both an energy source and an industrial raw material When it is inflated by the war premium It's not just winter heating that's damaged But rather next year's global planting costs and food accessibility Whose system is more pain tolerant? The United States has indeed transformed from a "fragile" to a "controlling" country in energy But its vulnerability lies not in the supply And the exposure of high interest rates to high valuation assets And the extreme sensitivity of the alliance system to "credible commitments" - this is precisely the most difficult part of Trump's "transactional diplomacy" Many people in the market tend to make a mistake: buying gold as soon as they go to war Initial liquidity is primary The US dollar and US Treasury bonds are the real 'panic hard currencies' Gold often doesn't truly start until the stage when "policy credit begins to loosen" If high interest rates, high energy costs, and high fiscal consumption become the norm So the discount rate of 'technology narrative' will be repriced Over the past decade, capital has been willing to pay a premium for the 'future' It's because 'now' is stable enough When the present becomes expensive and uncertain, capital will shorten its horizon The world is transitioning from an era of "efficiency first, low inflation, and low interest rates" Forcefully dragged into an era of 'safety first, high cost, and high dispersion' And the cost of this switch will not be evenly distributed Some countries can afford long-term high costs It's because its' endurance structure 'is still present Some countries may not be able to wait until the energy crisis is over Internally, there will be more intense vibrations than war first Putting the problem in the right framework, it's quite interesting to take a look at @ qingyue820