Here’s a ghost story... On May 9, 2022, BTC fell below the green line of the MVRV extreme deviation pricing range (-0.5 std). After that, it made three attempts to challenge the green line again on 5/15, 5/31, and 6/6, but all ultimately failed. The attempt on 5/31 even created a false breakout, making people briefly excited, thinking the bear market was over. On February 4, 2026, BTC similarly fell below -0.5 std and made two attempts to challenge the green line on 3/4 and 3/16. The 3/16 attempt was also a false breakout. Currently, the green line is around $73,200, while BTC’s price is $71,000—just a step away. Will there be a third attempt? Will it be a case of “third time’s the charm”? Four years ago, it was because Luna blew up. This time, we’ll have to see if Trump blows up.