$100 OIL WON’T HIT LIKE THE 1970s UBS says today’s global economy is far less vulnerable to oil shocks than in the 1970s, despite rising prices. Economist Arend Kapteyn highlights that oil spending as a share of GDP has more than halved since 1974 due to improved energy efficiency and economic growth. In the U.S., oil spending dropped from about 4.8% of GDP in 1974 to ~1.7% today—and would only reach ~2% even if prices hit $100 per barrel. Europe shows a similar decline. Bottom line: although supply disruptions may rival past crises, the global economy’s lower “oil intensity” means far less macroeconomic strain.(*Walter Bloomberg)