蓝狐|Mar 25, 2026 03:45
First of all, let me clarify that the content mentioned here has no intention of generating traffic or attacking BTC, and if BTC really has problems, it will be a problem for the entire industry.
The following is just a pure discussion. What should BTC do in the face of the threat of future quantum computing?
At present, there is a concept in the encryption community called Q-DAY, which specifically refers to the day when quantum computers can use the "Shor algorithm" to crack the ECDSA signature algorithm currently used in BTC and ETH.
This means that the private key is no longer secure and the wallet lock is no longer secure.
If in the past, quantum attacks were a pipe dream, now this threat is not non-existent.
According to current quantum experts, the approximate range is between 2031-2038, which means that the threat will become visible within 5-6 years at the fastest and 12-13 years at the slowest.
This is related to the rapid progress of quantum hardware and algorithms. According to quantum experts, cracking ECDSA used to require millions or even tens of millions of physical quantum bits.
In the past two years, algorithm optimization and new error correction codes will cause it to decrease by more than 10 times. According to the current exponential growth of algorithms and hardware, there is a probability of actual threats occurring within 5-6 years at the earliest.
Therefore, before Q-Day arrives, both BTC and ETH need to be locked with a "new lock" (post quantum signature).
Ethereum currently has a clear roadmap and an expected completion time (expected to complete the quantum upgrade around 2029).
The roadmap for the BTC community has not yet been finalized.
Due to historical reasons, the style of the BTC community has always been 'stay still if you can', supporting the principles of immutability and backward compatibility. Any upgrade is difficult in BTC.
It wasn't until last month that BTC first included quantum protection in its roadmap.
February 11th BIP 360(Pay-to-Merkle-Root), Formally joined the BIP warehouse.
The core is to remove a portion of Taproot's' key path 'and only retain Script path, achieving a significant reduction in quantum exposure. Future support for signature schemes that are easier to plug into quantum security.
However, it does not force anyone to upgrade, it only paves the way for future soft forks.
The complete migration plan (post quantum migration BIP) is still in the discussion stage and has not been officially adopted, which will take about 5-10 years:
The first stage encourages migration: prohibiting new funds from flowing to old addresses and encouraging communities to transfer coins to new quantum secure addresses;
The second stage of mandatory new currency: old addresses can still be spent, but new currency must use a new lock;
The final stage is the most controversial as it involves the handling of funds at the old address
Should the funds at the old address be frozen or burned?
This involves the handling of a significant proportion of BTC: approximately 25-33% of BTC (approximately 6-7 million in quantum exposed state, including Satoshi Nakamoto's 1 million, as well as other permanently lost BTC). By doing so, it violates the principle that the BTC community has always upheld: non-interference.
There are also opinions that suggest there is no need to freeze these BTC, whoever takes them will be held responsible.
If that's the case, 6-7 million BTC would be taken away by someone. If BTC had risen to $300000 per BTC at that time, this would mean that the total value of this portion would be between $1.8 trillion and $2.1 trillion.
It's hard to imagine what the final market will look like with such a massive influx of BTC into the market.
In summary, the biggest challenge in BTC's quantum protection roadmap now lies not in technology, but in governance dilemma: how to coordinate the community.
How to handle BTC with old addresses is the biggest obstacle to the future quantum security roadmap of BTC.
Perhaps in the next 1-2 years, the community will gradually move from arguments to consensus. After all, time waits for no one.
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