看不懂的SOL|Mar 24, 2026 07:23
If you copied Buffett's homework and bought BYD ten years ago, what would your account be like now?
Suppose there is a stock investor who is particularly convinced of Buffett's investment philosophy.
At the beginning of 2016, he saw that Buffett had BYD in his portfolio. Although BYD hardly distributed dividends at that time, with a dividend yield close to zero and a P/E ratio of up to 50 times, and a stock price of around 64 yuan, many people thought it was too expensive and dared not touch it, but he chose to trust Buffett.
So he took out 100000 yuan and bought 1600 shares at a price of 64 yuan.
Over the next four years, the market seems to be specifically against him, with stock prices fluctuating or even falling for a long time.
By 2021, it had dropped to a low of 36 yuan, with a floating loss of nearly 40%. The pitiful dividend yield with low dividends is often less than 1%.
Even worse, the net profit has significantly declined for three consecutive years. Although revenue has increased from 100 billion to 150 billion. But the lack of profit keeping up with the market has raised doubts. At this point, ordinary people have already left the market, but only two types of people can hold on to it: those who truly understand BYD's business model.
Knowing that he is investing money in electric battery technology reserves, another type is someone who has absolute trust in Buffett and believes that he will not make reckless purchases.
He endured the toughest four years, and then a miracle happened.
Starting from 50 yuan in 2019, BYD entered a period of explosive growth, reaching a peak of 400 yuan by 2025. In five years, the stock price has risen eight times.
The net profit soared from 4 billion to 40 billion, a tenfold increase.
Recently, BYD's stock price has been around 90 yuan, and its number of shares has also increased from 1600 to 4800 due to stock dividends.
The value is 430000 yuan, plus a cash dividend account balance of 15000 yuan, making a total of 445000 yuan over ten years. One hundred thousand becomes 445000 with a yield of 345%.
The annualized compound rate of return is approximately 16%. It has already exceeded the investment return of most people.
But the problem has arisen. If we go back to 2016. Are we catching up with Buffett's homework?
Can we withstand three consecutive years of declining profits and halving stock prices?
Can we not be greedy and get off the car early when the stock price triples in 2023?
If you don't buy stocks, you're buying the company's beliefs.
Without an understanding of the business model, simply entering the market by listening to Buffett's purchase is likely to result in a cut in the market during a downturn or getting off midway.
Only for knowledge sharing, does not constitute investment advice
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