2026.3.24 Macro Market Analysis (1) Trump’s K-line Sketch Yesterday, Trump announced a 5-day pause on military strikes against Iran and hinted that both sides had reached a consensus, with a ceasefire imminent. As soon as the news dropped, oil prices plummeted, and risk assets surged! But Iran responded: no talks, fake news, and the market crashed in response! Remember, you can’t trust Trump’s nonsense—he changes his story 8 times a day! (2) When will the U.S. and Iran cease fire? In the short term, it’s unlikely. Iran wants the U.S. to pay reparations and admit to acts of aggression, which is almost impossible. Polymarket data shows a 35% chance of a ceasefire before April 15, and 55% before the end of April. (3) Hormuz Strait, Day 24 No matter what the U.S. and Iran say, the strait remains blocked. Only a handful of ships pass through daily, and oil prices still won’t drop. (4) How to survive this market? 1. Only trade short-term contracts—don’t hold positions for too long. Yesterday saw $665 million in liquidations; one sentence from Trump and positions exploded instantly. 2. The conflict won’t end quickly. When things are uncertain, don’t go heavy on positions. 3. For spot trading, stay on the sidelines for now. Wait to accumulate $BTC below $55K in batches. Yesterday, MicroStrategy bought another 1,031 $BTC and is preparing $4.2 billion in financing to continue adding to its position. 4. Stay away from trash altcoins. Projects like SIREN, run by shady whales, are best ignored—pretend they don’t exist. 5. For altcoins, keep an eye on TAO and HYPE—they’re worth some attention.