金十数据|Mar 24, 2026 03:57
[ING: Japan's Inflation Slowdown is Temporary and Won't Alter BOJ's Rate Cycle] Jin10 Data, March 24 – Economists at ING stated that the Bank of Japan is likely to overlook the recent slowdown in inflation and focus on price risks instead. The initial wage negotiation results are encouraging, and for now, the impact of the Middle East conflict appears minimal. The decline in preliminary PMI reflects recent oil supply shocks and a reduction in new orders, which indeed raises concerns about the outlook. However, overall data remains above 50, indicating that businesses view geopolitical risks as temporary. Persistent core inflation, PMI data, and wage negotiations increase the likelihood of a rate hike in April, though the exact timing remains uncertain. The Middle East situation will play a critical role in BOJ's decision-making. If the situation stabilizes and there are no signs of production or consumption declines, the probability of an April rate hike will be higher.
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