貝格先生🐢|Mar 24, 2026 01:47
The 'Ten Year Unchanged Law': Waiting for the Periodic Bottom Signal of Massive Turnover
With the appearance of Trump's TACO again, BTC saw a rapid rise yesterday,
As always, as long as there is an increase, the sound of anticipation for a bull's return will rise and fall again, but ..?
In the following quote, I analyzed the market situation from the perspective of liquidity,
And today I plan to share my bias with everyone from the perspective of chip turnover :
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The indicator in the attached figure is the "CBD Chip Distribution Heat Map", and the concept is briefly described as follows:
➡️ The indicator consists of three dimensions, namely "time", "price", and "accumulation volume"
➡️ The darker the color (yellow red), the more chips are stacked
➡️ Deepening color indicates an increase in accumulation; Color fading indicates a decrease in stacking volume
The time range presented in the attached figure is' the past 10 years',
We can clearly see from the picture that:
Almost every appearance of the bottom is accompanied by a massive change of hands ‼️」
In theory, changing hands means the degree to which funds are willing to place bets here,
The massive turnover represents a higher market recognition of the price range.
Since BTC plummeted to 60K, the sideways time has reached the 45th day,
It is worth noting that in the current consolidation zone, there are almost no obvious changes in hands ⚠️
Based on my conclusion in the following citation that breaks down the current horizontal structure from a liquidity perspective,
Now, whether from the perspective of "chip turnover" or "technical structure",
It seems that none of them support the emergence of a true cyclical bottom;
This is also one of the reasons why I still tend to wait for the 'last tremble'.
The Last Trembling: Latest Data from the "Four Big Deep Bear Bottom hunting Models" (Part 6)
https://(((x.com)))/market_beggar/status/2034810531002147176
Perhaps observant friends may notice: 'There won't be a huge turnover at the bottom of April 2025 either.' ❓」
Yes, when I escape to the top in early 2025 (https://((x.com))/market_gegar/status/2007316385907781837),
I believe that the peak of BTC's cycle has already appeared, and I think the rally after April is very unhealthy,
This is also the reason why I was willing to lay out BTC long-term short positions from July to October:
https://(((x.com)))/market_beggar/status/1991320675865489815
In other words:
When the bottom appears, there is a high probability but no guarantee that it will be accompanied by a huge number of hand changes,
And there is a huge amount of turnover at the bottom, which would be a relatively healthier condition.
Finally, there have been significant fluctuations in the market recently. If you are a long-term player,
My suggestion is to not overly focus on short-term noise, just focus on long-term signals,
The best strategy to cope with a bear market is to hold onto the principal and avoid losses during fluctuations.
The above is today's content, hoping to be helpful to everyone
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