Are you his mother safe? Today, gold fell like dog poop, heading all the way to below 4000. The trend of gold is really unpredictable The war between the United States and Israel against Iran is not over yet. Let's harvest the gold first Long term investors who have been hoarding gold are not too miserable I'm afraid that during the recent surge in gold prices, players who sold their big cakes and US stocks and bought gold would suffer even more from this secondary damage. one The most frustrating thing about this wave is not the drop in gold prices. The war is still ongoing, and the gold has collapsed first. Many people still have the same convenient formula in their minds: go to war, avoid risks, and buy gold. The result is the opposite of the market. two Because this time the market was not trading 'safe haven' at all. The first thing to trade is oil prices. When oil prices surge, inflation, interest rates, and the US dollar immediately follow. Gold is most afraid of these three things. three To put it simply, gold did not lose to the war this time. We lost to the chain behind the war. Oil prices rise, inflation expectations rise, interest rate cuts roll back, interest rates peak, and the US dollar begins to suck blood. Gold was pressed down like this. four Usually people blow gold too much. Buying gold in turbulent times is the ultimate safe haven, no matter what. When the market is really short of money, it is often not robbed, but sold first. The reason is simple: it has good liquidity and has risen before, so it is best to exchange it for cash. five So don't talk about 'risk aversion failure' in this wave. Simply put, it means: Now the market needs dollars first, cash first, don't have your gold faith. Who is the easiest to sell, who gets the knife first. The gold happened to be there. six What's even more distressing is that too many people have been squeezed into the logic of the previous golden scheme. Whether it's de dollarization, central bank buying of gold, geopolitical risks, or US dollar credit issues, they all make sense. The problem is that if too many people believe in a logic and it rises too smoothly, the market will eventually take action against it. The more consensus there is in the front, the more aggressive it is in the back. seven So the hardest part this time is not the person who keeps hoarding gold. But it's those who saw gold skyrocket a while ago, sold the big cake, cut down the US stock market, and then rushed in to chase after gold. Missing out on other assets in the front, and then being fiercely dealt with by gold's backhand. This kind of secondary damage is much more uncomfortable than simply withdrawing with gold.