This morning, gold and silver and Japanese and South Korean stock markets continued to plunge sharply, and the main reason was Trump's 48 hour speech on bombing power plants at the weekend. Trump is really jumping off the beaten track these days. Although this is very consistent with his usual design, what hides behind his absurd behavior may be to buy time for ground troops to land. Let's talk about the bombing of the power plant first. First of all, this is not a question of feasibility, but a question of whether one wants to or not. Previously, not bombing was just to control the intensity of the war and not to give Iran a reason to bomb Israeli power plants. Because Iran's power plants are relatively small in scale and have a distributed layout that leads to greater redundancy, while Israel's Rabin power plant accounts for 20% of its power generation, and once destroyed, the impact will be more widespread. Due to the lack of an appropriate exit mechanism in the United States, Trump needs to increase its investment in oil refueling tactics in any case until it reaches the point where "Iran kneels down to beg for mercy and says I have convinced you not to fight", while Israel continues to kill Iranian moderate leaders, resulting in a situation where no one talks. If we bring it into Chinese history, even if Pezexizhiyang is Wang Jingwei, the current domestic situation in Iran does not support surrender. Whoever surrenders will die. Although Iran used to be very soft, causing everyone to mourn its misfortune and remain indifferent, the departure of the Revolutionary Guard Corps leader after Khamenei's death has clearly changed this trend. What if Iran, like China during the War of Resistance Against Japan, refused to surrender and all its people were in arms? Although many people on the Internet have different positions and political tendencies, as a serious trader, you can't ignore the possibility of this situation. You can't be as naive as Trump at first to think that Iran will surrender quickly if it kills its leader. The current situation forces us to seriously consider the issues of protracted warfare and expansion. Although Trump made the mistake that he should not start a war, he should not go to Halk Island to do such a desperate situation. He is currently deploying two landing forces and the 82nd Airborne Division, which should have a different direction. After all, you can't expect aircraft carriers or amphibious landing ships to charge into the narrow Persian Gulf with shore based firepower coverage to engage in island landing operations and exploit pockets. If amphibious ships and airborne divisions launch a surprise attack on the outskirts of Abbas Port and Gesham Island, it will be easier to achieve results. After all, this is the throat of the Persian Gulf, where you can receive naval support and quickly escape. If we can capture a stronghold, we can publicly claim control of the strait, which is a relatively dignified way to step down politically. Under the existing framework of the US dollar system, the decline in gold, silver, and stock bonds is mainly due to adjustments in interest rate expectations and the withdrawal of funds to chase after the rise in crude oil, which is essentially a short-term speculative behavior. Whether it is the easing of the situation leading to a decline in oil prices and the return of funds, or the further deterioration of the situation forcing short-term speculative funds that previously pursued gold and silver to reconsider long-term allocation of gold and silver as a safe haven, it will once again drive up the value of bulk non-ferrous HALO assets. If the situation worsens to the apocalyptic scenario of the collapse of the US dollar system, then gold and silver will be even more sought after. At a time when the Iranian regime is stable and there is no possibility of quick surrender, the deployment of the US military may really provide more options for Trump's decision. After all, the preparation work must be done whether to fight or not. Whether the situation will continue to escalate in the short term depends on whether Trump will attack the power plant and Iran's counterattack strength. We rely more on the situation of all parties to make a more likely deduction, but because of the existence of the two biggest uncertainties, Trump and Netanyahu, there may be a large deviation in judgment. However, from the K-line perspective, the 200 day moving average of gold and silver, which is at the 4200/62 level, provides strong support, making it relatively friendly for long-term investors to gradually buy at the bottom.