灯塔说|3月 22, 2026 03:05
The future looks optimistic
Seize the opportunity now, or you might have to wait a few more years!
Here’s a deep dive into recent on-chain capital movements:
In March, Bitcoin outflows from major exchanges saw an extreme surge. According to CryptoQuant data, a staggering 32,000 BTC net outflow was recorded in a single day. Currently, the Bitcoin reserves across centralized exchanges (CEX) have dropped to their lowest levels in nearly seven years.
Where is all the BTC going?
Additionally, corresponding to the withdrawals from exchanges, just in March alone, publicly listed companies (like MicroStrategy and other enterprise-level wallets) were observed accumulating nearly 350,000 BTC on-chain.
Although last week (around March 20), due to macroeconomic pressures and the "quadruple witching day," short-term institutional ETFs and some whales sent BTC to Coinbase and Binance for spot selling or shorting collateral (causing short-term rebound pressure).
Looking at a longer time frame, wallets belonging to old addresses and corporate giants haven’t shown large-scale transfers to exchanges for selling. Instead, the tokens are being locked away in cold wallets.
From a pure capital flow perspective, there’s no significant selling pressure at the current levels! Long-term prospects for the market remain bullish.
Yesterday, a friend asked me if Bitcoin will still have the kind of cyclical bull market I mentioned before (I had explained it earlier). If so, can we catch the signals for an upward trend?
I told him yes, it’s possible. The essence of crypto is a decentralized ecosystem, and with a fixed total supply, BTC’s liquidity can reflect market trends. However, the key to a bull market also lies in macroeconomic factors (I elaborated on this quite a bit).
He then asked me where the market thinks the bottom of this downturn might be.
I said there are various opinions—some say it’s at $60K, others at $56-58K, and some even at $45K or $38K.
But regardless of where it lands, if we’re optimistic about long-term growth and further upside, then any dip is an excellent buying opportunity.
From $60K to $40K is just a $20K drop, but from $60K to $100-150K is a doubling or more.
Although the charts show that daily and weekly trends are still in a bear market, the downturn has already entered its later stages. Even in a bear market, BTC’s rebound potential can be astonishing.
So, in this kind of market, if you can hold onto your capital and wait for the latter stages of the dip, make sure to stay alert and seize the opportunity.
Miss it, and you might have to wait a few more years.
#BTC
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