qinbafrank|Mar 22, 2026 00:05
Discuss the ceasefire negotiation terms between the United States and Iran, as well as the current focus. The United States has finally set its own price, and Axios News reported that the Trump administration has begun "preliminary discussions" on a possible peace agreement with Iran. US officials are planning the following terms:
1) Not conducting missile programs within five years
2) Zero uranium enrichment
3) The retirement of reactors at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordo nuclear facilities
4) Implement strict external supervision agreements for the manufacturing and use of centrifuges and related machinery that may advance nuclear weapons programs
5) The arms control treaty signed with regional countries includes an upper limit of no more than 1000 missiles.
6) Stop funding Iranian proxy groups
For Iran, these terms are easy to accept regarding nuclear issues 3) and 4), as most nuclear facilities have been bombed, and 2) and 6) can be discussed and fought.
But regarding clauses 1) and 5) regarding ballistic missiles, they may be the most difficult for Iran to accept now, in fact, in mid February https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2024339758672203977? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A has been discussed before, and compared to the nuclear program, ballistic missiles are now Iran's trump card for survival. Especially the night before yesterday, Iran had launched two missiles with a range of 4000 kilometers to hit Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, although the last one was intercepted and failed to self destruct. But it also indicates that Iran's missile technology is almost very advanced, and in two years of development, it may be possible to develop long-range missiles. In this situation, preventing Iran from carrying out missile programs and limiting the number of missiles is like pulling a tiger's tooth.
Unless Iran is truly defeated, the possibility of Iran accepting missile restrictions in the short term is unlikely.
The latest conditions proposed by the Iranian government are:
Recognizing legitimate rights, compensation, and security commitments, the Revolutionary Guard Corps still insists on the withdrawal of US military bases from the Middle East.
For the United States, the possibility of compensation is unlikely, lifting sanctions is likely, and providing security commitments is also acceptable. Withdrawing military bases is even more unacceptable.
Actually, many people overlooked a key point yesterday:
When Iran released its medium range missiles with a range of 4000 kilometers, everything was even more different. This distance can reach Western Europe or even France, which is a military force capable of further changing the geopolitical landscape. Do you think Europe is panicking or not? The threat from Russia has not been lifted yet, and now we have to truly feel the threat from Iran. This is likely to cause great panic and backlash among NATO countries, and NATO countries that previously stood idly by may change their attitude and instead support the actions of the United States. And the United States and Israel cannot allow Iran to possess medium range or even longer range ballistic missiles.
As mentioned earlier, missiles are now the lifeblood of Iran, and it is difficult to accept the missile restriction plan proposed by the United States unless they are severely damaged or even subdued.
It seems that for the United States and Israel, the rampage mode will continue, and they need to continue to increase their intensity in order to achieve the goal of "using violence to promote talks". Otherwise, what cannot be obtained on the battlefield and still cannot be obtained at the negotiation table
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