The 5-cent contract that debunked a wartime death conspiracy

When social media declared Netanyahu dead, crypto prediction markets priced it at 5%. The money was right — and Washington wants to shut it down. What to know : When rumors spread that Netanyahu had been killed, Polymarket's betting contracts told a different story — pricing the probability of him leaving office at just 4–5%, even as the conspiracy dominated social media. The contrast with the Khamenei market is telling: when the Iranian Supreme Leader actually was killed, Polymarket spiked instantly to 100%, proving the same crowd that ignored the Netanyahu rumor knew how to price a real event. Prediction markets are now facing a political backlash, with Democratic senators pushing to ban contracts tied to deaths — at the same moment the markets are demonstrating their greatest informational value.(Coindesk)