The unprecedented drop in gold and silver this week should have scared many traditional investors, but for those of us who are used to big waves in the cryptocurrency industry, this small fluctuation should still be held. The logic behind the decline of gold and silver has probably been discussed by many people. Although there is no consensus, to simplify it, I believe it is caused by the strong control of American capital. After all, profits and losses come from the same source, and the previous rise was also the same. This decline is just causing trouble by taking advantage of Powell's speech at the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting We can also simplify the impact of the Iran conflict on the gold, silver, oil, and stock markets. The United States can only win by quickly using military force to subdue Iran, and any other outcome will be a loss. This war, which should not have started, was destined to have a huge profit loss ratio from the beginning, and only bosses like Mr. Trump who can go bankrupt by running a casino will end up with unclear accounts. 1. Rapid victory for the United States, with the addition of the Marine Corps or Army, quickly defeating Iran's support for a puppet regime to reshape its hegemony within a few months. Only in this way can we maintain our original advantage, but it is too difficult. Twenty years ago, we paid a huge price for fighting Iraq, and now it is impossible to quickly win against Iran, which is stronger than the weak military during the Gulf War in the 1990s. 2. Immediately stop loss and exit, a small loss, but still able to maintain the original path of slow decline, because all parties, especially China, do not want the US hegemony to collapse rapidly like the collapse of the Soviet Union and cause global chaos. It's best to have China supporting us to share the food with Japan, South Korea, and Europe. 3. After refueling, the ground suffered greater losses and withdrew, resulting in a major defeat. The immortals can't save Trump if they take this desperate path. Maybe a killer will shoot again, and this time it may not be as lucky as last time. There are three unconventional paths to resolving Iran: 1. Netanyahu hangs up 2. Trump hangs up 3. Iran's nuclear materials fail (it is difficult to deploy special forces to seize them, and the chances of the United States dropping ground penetrating bombs or Israel dropping tactical nuclear weapons are higher) But these belong to the category of extraterrestrial flying immortals and are not within the scope of conventional considerations. Returning to the trend of gold and silver, there are several mainstream opinions currently causing a decline: 1. Liquidity crisis, the short-term hedging ability of US dollar cash is stronger. However, based on the three scenarios of the US Iran Israel war mentioned above, none of them will strengthen the credibility of the US dollar. The US dollar index has started to turn around, and once the trend is confirmed, gold and silver will rebound. 2. The expectation of interest rate hikes is completely empty handed. In such a poor economic situation, there is no possibility of interest rate hikes. Moderate inflation can raise interest rates, but the imported malignant inflation caused by rising oil prices can only be solved through political means, and monetary policy is ineffective in this regard. 3. In fact, there are traces of private transactions between the United States and Iran. It depends on whether Trump can overcome Netanyahu (although he doesn't know whether he is alive or dead) 4. Gold and silver have risen too much and too fast before, and it is normal to buy more and sell more. After killing the bulls, it may be necessary to squeeze short again. So in terms of price and order making, the gold and silver stock market will not have a one-sided trend like last year, but a more difficult high-level wide range oscillation. Those with insufficient technical level will definitely be questioned about their lives. From a point of view, the first support range for gold at 4700-4500 has arrived and is currently closing at 4500 If there is a further decline, we need to look at the 4350-4500 range, with the limit at 4100-4200. Silver had previously dropped to 65, which is already quite in place. If there is a bigger crisis, it is more appropriate to place the limit around 55-60, which is relatively safe compared to the high of 120. Gold and silver are long-term assets. If you control your position and leverage well, there is no need to worry or panic. After all, this year is a big year, and I believe that the recovery from the decline and consolidation will not take longer than that of the big pie.