Murphy|Mar 21, 2026 08:01
Right now, for individuals or institutional investors under severe financial pressure, every $1,000 rebound in Bitcoin feels like torture. It’s like the market is giving you a multiple-choice question: here’s your chance, are you selling or not?
If you sell, it’s like handing the knife to yourself; if you don’t, the market might hit you even harder later… If you haven’t experienced it, it’s hard to truly understand this kind of pain.
This is exactly why, often in the latter stages of a bear market, unexpected black swans appear—because people just can’t hold on anymore. A small wave of panic and anxiety can trigger larger-scale, deeper losses and liquidations.
Of course, you could also see this as a bottom signal.
I saw someone mention it could also be arbitrage trades. That’s possible, but judging from the current 3-month rolling basis annualized return, it’s lower than the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds during the same period. The conditions for large-scale arbitrage aren’t quite sufficient.
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