You can’t make this up: The market now sees a 50% chance of a US Fed rate HIKE by the end of 2026. Just months ago, markets saw as many as four rate CUTS this year. As oil prices surge to $100+/barrel, inflation expectations are rapidly rising, with gas prices up nearly +50% in four months. In fact, the 10Y Note Yield is now up nearly +40 basis points since the Iran War began, bringing mortgage rates to fresh 2026 highs. All while the European Central Bank is now expected to hike interest rates twice this year. Our models show that if current oil prices are sustained for another two months, US CPI inflation will rise to 3.3%. In just three weeks, the era of “higher for longer” Fed policy appears to have returned when markets were least expecting it. Those who do not own assets will be left in the dust. Own assets or be left behind.(The Kobeissi Letter)