FED HIKE BACK IN PLAY IF OIL SHOCK PERSISTS Bank of America says markets have largely ruled out Fed rate cuts—and are now asking what could trigger hikes instead. The bank outlines three key conditions: a stable labor market, Jerome Powell staying as Chair, and a sustained but moderate oil shock from Iran. Rate hikes become likely if oil holds around $80–$100. Sticky inflation and rising energy prices are keeping pressure on the Fed, making cuts harder to justify. Powell has already struck a hawkish tone, emphasizing inflation risks and uncertainty סביב the Iran conflict. Bottom line: if the oil shock lingers, the Fed could shift back toward tightening.(*Walter Bloomberg)