Where has the situation in Iran reached in terms of rampage mode, refueling mode, using violence to promote talks, and final decisive battle? Last Friday, https://(x.com)/qinbank/status/2032481443839160383? S=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A talked that Trump was in a dilemma at that time, and the most likely choice was to go wild. Then in the early morning of the next day, the US military bombed the military facilities in Khark Island, Iran, and threatened to bomb the energy facilities to officially open the mode of violence. Last Saturday here https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/20326352744178111617? S=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A talked about why Trump had to go riot instead of compromise at that time. Because this is the "Suez Canal Moment" of Trump and the United States. This week, the US military continued to bomb missile launch sites and missile depots along the Iranian coast of the Strait of Hormuz. Then Israel killed Larijani, the Iranian intelligence minister, the commander of the Revolutionary Guard Baski militia, and bombed Iran's natural gas fields. Then Iran continued to retaliate and attacked energy facilities in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Media reports suggest that Israel's bombing of energy facilities was notified to the United States in advance and approved. Trump denied it the next day, and then Netanyahu said last night that he did not notify Trump in advance and even said that he would suspend bombing Iran's energy facilities, and believed that the war would end soon. But then he said that in order to achieve "regime change" in Iran, airstrikes alone are not enough, there must be a "ground component". This strongly suggests that Israel still retains the option of ground operations. Trump and Netta's statement is to release signals to see Iran's response, which is also likely to be a slow move. First, stabilize Iran to see its response. Iran said today that it would collect tolls from merchant ships and oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. If so, can Trump accept that tolls become normal? Most likely not, because accepting Iran's tolls essentially acknowledges Iran's dominant position in the Persian Gulf, not to mention the Fifth Fleet Command in Bahrain, which has become a joke. What are the US military doing these days? 1) Mobilize the 31st Marine Expeditionary Force stationed in Japan to launch an attack on the Middle East archipelago aboard the amphibious assault ship Tripoli, and estimate that it will arrive in the next few days. 2) Mobilize the 11th Marine Expeditionary Force troops from the West Coast to board the Boxer class amphibious assault ship strike group and deploy them to the Middle East via the Asia Pacific region. It is estimated that they will be deployed by the end of March or early April. 3) Read the latest report from The Wall Street Journal today The US military has deployed low altitude aircraft such as A-10 Warthog attack planes to hunt down Iranian speedboats/armed ships in the strait area. Using Apache helicopters to shoot down drones: Apache armed helicopters have been put into use to counter Iranian drones and coastal threats. Use a 5000 pound "bunker buster" bomb to strike hardened missile positions. Directly aim to open up the Strait of Hormuz, rather than accepting tolls. 4) At the same time, last week the THAAD system from South Korea was moved to the Middle East, which may have been transported and is currently being installed and debugged. At the beginning of this week, the original plan to deploy 10000 interception drones to Ukraine was changed to deploy them to the Middle East. 5) Then a new round of arms sales was approved for Middle Eastern countries to supplement guided bombs, intercept missiles, radar systems, etc. To be honest, the most direct feeling from these actions is actually the oiling mode, with layers of reinforcement. Perhaps it is deterrence, but more likely it is further action. Then in the evening, Axios news website reported that the source said that the Trump government was considering making a plan to occupy or blockade Iran's Halk Island, in order to put pressure on Iran and force it to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This may be Trump's next step: take the island. Attempting to control Hark Island, which controls 90% of Iran's crude oil exports, would be equivalent to strangling Iran's economic lifeline. Use this island to negotiate with Iran again. As we discussed before, let Iran understand that he cannot control the Strait of Hormuz and can only talk about pain. So the situation started from the mode of violence, and went into the mode of "adding oil" and "promoting talks by fighting". Of course, it can also be said that controlling Hark Island is the "final battle" in Dario's mouth. But from a personal perspective, Trump's goal is to get the same card as Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz. If there is a card, there will be a bargaining chip. In addition, the continuous bombing for a month has indeed greatly weakened Iran's strength. The next two to three weeks may be the most critical period for the Iran situation, and the intensity may escalate, but it will also determine the ultimate direction of the situation. This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'