The FOMC is over, the dot matrix is out, there is no pigeon turning, and there is even an eagle leaning tendency inside. The dot plot shows that the median federal funds rate at the end of 2026 is 3.4%, at the end of 2027 it is 3.1%, and at the end of 2028 it is still 3.1%. The current policy interest rate range is 3.50% -3.75%, corresponding to a midpoint of approximately 3.625%. That is to say, Only one 25bp (25 basis points) interest rate cut is reserved in 2026, followed by another one in 2027, and there will be no further interest rate cuts in 2028. In addition, among the 19 Federal Reserve officials, 7 believe that there will be no interest rate cuts in 2026, 7 believe in one reduction, 5 believe in at least two reductions, and even one mentioned the possibility of future interest rate hikes. The PCE inflation and core PCE inflation forecasts have also been revised upwards simultaneously, with the long-term neutral interest rate raised to 3.1%. The expectation of the first interest rate cut has been pushed back from June to September, and some institutions still believe that the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is greater than 70%. The window period for a significant market rebound has been pushed from around June to September, and if the US Iran conflict continues, the so-called Iran and weaponization are likely to ignite public opinion around June. Of course, if the employment problem worsens abnormally or the economic recession is obvious, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice a year. Under normal circumstances, the probability of not cutting interest rates throughout the year is not very high. Personally, I think we should cut interest rates once in September and continue to wait and see. The key data is still fuel injection and core inflation. Let's continue to wait and see.