
mignolet|Mar 20, 2026 01:16
March is already drawing to a close.
Ultimately, while the direction was different from February, the fundamental flow of the market has not changed significantly.
What I've observed throughout February and March is that the market still assigns excessive meaning to short-term structures, causing expectations and sentiment to shift far too rapidly.
This was clearly evident during the rally on March 17th. Such an atmosphere would be difficult to form if extreme fear actually existed in the market.
To reiterate, even in previous bull cycles, it took about eight months of prolonged sideways movement before prices began to climb again.
Yet now, despite the situation being even more severe, people are placing heavy significance on short-term moves after only two months.
This is because lingering expectations still remain in the market. As a result, even a slight rebound quickly triggers bullish hopes and FOMO.
I am maintaining a consistent outlook.
If prices rise again in the short term, it will likely be no different from last week expectations will amplify once more.
Considering the overall current situation, it is difficult to expect a meaningful rally from a trend-perspective.(mignolet)
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