金十数据|Mar 19, 2026 12:42
[Traders No Longer Expect Fed Rate Cuts in 2026, Even Hedging for Hikes]
Jin10 Data, March 19 – U.S. Treasury prices fell, and after the Bank of England indicated it would be prepared to take action against inflation, traders no longer believe there is a possibility of rate cuts in the U.S. this year. This move led to an increase in yields across all maturities, with the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to Federal Reserve policy changes, rising by 13 basis points to 3.9%. Bond traders have abandoned expectations for U.S. rate cuts this year, and some have even started hedging for potential rate hikes in the coming months.
Tom Di Galoma, Managing Director at Mischler Financial Group, stated: 'All of this is driven by the Bank of England's rate decision, as the market currently expects the bank to raise rates by 50 basis points in 2026. Europe's bond market is experiencing a sharp decline, which has also pushed up U.S. yields.' He noted that the flow of funds is determined by a lack of buyers, 'primarily driven by selling activity,' and market sentiment is largely influenced by expectations of prolonged conflict. 'It is now believed that this Iran war could last for months rather than weeks.'
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