Macro market analysis on March 19, 2026 Let's take a look at what Powell said last night, and the conclusion is three sentences: 1. Maintain interest rates unchanged 2. The probability of a rate cut this year is only 50% 3. Middle East war, energy inflation cannot be ignored The market collapsed immediately after listening, and the pie fell below 71000, causing a river of blood to flow in the US stock market! The core logic of decline is that inflation has not been reduced, the bear market is trending downwards, oil prices are rising again due to the impact of the Hormuz, and there is also a combination of tariffs. Three sources of inflation are simultaneously pressing down, and Powell dare not loosen his grip on interest rate cuts. Interest rate cuts have become a luxury, and there is even a possibility of interest rate hikes. How to operate 1. Watch more with less movement, only engage in short-term contracts, and invest in large cakes in batches for spot orders below 60000 yuan 2. Refer to the 200 week moving average of the Big Dipper, at the position of 58837 3. Pay attention to the war situation. Currently, Hormuz is still under lockdown, and oil prices are not falling. Cryptocurrency prices are not rising 4. Pay attention to HYPE, S&P500 perpetual contract authorization landing, strong products, continuous positive news, very strong Yesterday, it was emphasized that the FOMC will experience an average correction of 5-8% within 48 hours. Are there any brothers who are short selling? We are currently following this script and patiently waiting for the opportunity!