Lark Davis
Lark Davis|Mar 19, 2026 09:38
Quick history lesson nobody asked for but everyone needs right now Since 1973 we've had 6 major oil shocks. Arab embargo. Iranian revolution. Iran-Iraq war. Gulf War. 2008 spike. Ukraine war. Every single time, one thing stayed constant: the Strait of Hormuz stayed open. Ships moved. Oil flowed. Markets panicked, prices spiked, then life went on. Not this time. Here's what's actually different about 2026 and why your petrol bill is about to become your personality: The strait is de facto CLOSED. Not "risky". Not "tense". Closed. Tanker traffic is down 70%. 150+ ships just... sitting there. Waiting. ~20% of the world's oil supply is currently stranded in a body of water the size of Wales. The Red Sea, the usual escape route, is also a no-go. Houthis said hi. It's not just oil. Qatar just declared force majeure on LNG. That's 20% of global gas supply also going nowhere fast. And unlike every previous crisis, the actual infrastructure is being blown up. Tankers near the Gulf coast. Not threatened: hit. In 1990 Iraq invaded Kuwait, prices doubled, the US sent in the cavalry, and six months later it was basically over. This has no cavalry. No quick fix. No clear end. Every past Gulf crisis was a price shock. This one is a system shock. The last time something remotely like this happened was 1973, and that one gave us stagflation, fuel rationing, and a decade of economic misery. Buckle up. This one's different. (image from wikimedia commons)
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