Phyrex|Mar 18, 2026 19:36
Summary of the March 2026 Interest Conference
At the end of today's reporter's question, Powell clarified that data centers are being established everywhere in the United States, and the establishment of data centers may push up inflation or raise neutral interest rates. Therefore, there is no expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the short term. Of course, more data is needed to confirm this. Currently, Powell believes that the growth of the US economy is good, and the labor force level is relatively stable. The main reason for the Federal Reserve to adjust monetary policy is still the decrease in inflation.
But in the short term, whether it is the rise in oil prices caused by the war between the United States and Iran or the rise in commodity inflation caused by tariffs, they cannot be solved in the short term. Therefore, in the short term, staying firm on interest rates should be Powell's main job, at least during his tenure. Then, the third approach is to keep the inflation target of 2% steady based on data, and we don't know the specific trend going forward.
But this time Powell made it clear that although the rise in oil prices may cause inflation, tariffs may cause inflation to rise, and the rise in diesel prices may cause the cost of daily necessities to rise, the Federal Reserve is not yet prepared to raise interest rates. However, the Federal Reserve has some ideas and restrictive measures, but it is still too early to say for now.
The other is his opinion on the expiration of Powell's term of office. Because he is still in the investigation stage, Powell does not intend to leave before the end of the investigation, and the investigation may affect the appointment time of Powell's successor. If Powell does not take office at the end of the investigation, he will continue to take charge of the Federal Reserve as the interim chairman. I wonder if Trump has hit his own foot. Whether Powell will continue to serve as a director after the expiration is currently unknown to him.
Overall, my personal feeling is that Powell's response to the reporter's question this time was slightly hawkish. Although I do not believe there is a possibility of short-term interest rate hikes and also believe that the US economy will maintain strong growth, Powell remains very cautious about interest rate cuts. At the end, he even mainly talked about the reasons why he does not plan to cut interest rates in the short term, which is also predicted by the risk market. However, Powell's strength may reduce investors' expectations of Walsh's interest rate cuts after taking office.
In addition, Powell believes that although the short-term rise in oil prices has an impact on inflation, the impact is limited, and the more important factor affecting inflation is tariffs.
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