The Fed is projecting higher growth, higher inflation, and the same rates as before (for the end of 2026). Basically, it is moving itself out of the way. In other words, 2026 is nothing like 2022. If we go back to 2022, the Fed turned hawkish in January (with the Fed minutes of January 5, to be precise). Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, and risk assets put a major bottom that same night. In mid-March, the Fed delivered its first hike, and spoos rallied as the hike was priced-in, even though the dots were hawkish. Then, on March 29, Fed speakers began to come out "max hawkish" (Harker was the initial spark), and everything went to shit.(Alex Krüger)