The Fed is projecting (for end of 2026) higher growth, higher inflation, and same rates as before. Basically moving itself out of the way. In other words, 2026 is nothing like 2022. If we go back to 2022, the Fed turned hawkish in January (with the Fed minutes of Jan 5 to be precise). Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb 24, and risk assets put a major bottom that same night. On mid March the Fed delivered its first hike, and spoos rallied, as the hike was priced in, even though dots were hawkish. Then on March 29 Fed speakers started to come out max hawkish (Harker was the initial spark), and it all went to shit.(Alex Krüger)