律动BlockBeats|Mar 18, 2026 05:24
Institutional Outlook on Federal Reserve Interest Rate Path: The room for interest rate cuts is quite limited, and there may only be one rate cut within the year
BlockBeats News: On March 18th, at 2:00 am Beijing time tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. The market currently fully expects interest rates to remain unchanged and has turned its attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's statement during the monetary policy press conference. The institutional outlook is as follows:
1. Berenberg: The space for further interest rate cuts is quite limited, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will implement the last 25 basis point rate cut of this cycle at its June meeting.
2. Goldman Sachs: It is expected that interest rates will be cut by 25 basis points in September and December respectively. If the labor market weakens earlier and more severely than expected, interest rates may still be cut earlier.
3. Deutsche Bank: Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged this week, as rapidly rising geopolitical uncertainty and inflation risks caused by soaring oil prices are eroding the room for interest rate cuts.
4. Fanong Credit: It is expected to remain inactive before the end of the year. Some members may advocate ignoring the short-term surge in inflation driven by energy, but most members tend to be more cautious.
5. Rabobank: Under Powell's leadership, the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its wait-and-see stance; If Walsh takes office, the Federal Reserve may become more aggressive or push for interest rate cuts to resist economic downturns.
6. TS Lombard: Labor market concerns are resurfacing, and if the energy shock subsides within a few weeks, coupled with the emergence of tariff inflation base effects in the second half of the year and a rapid slowdown in rental inflation, there is still a possibility of two interest rate cuts within the year. (Golden Ten)
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