The retail fear index has been in extreme fear for 38 consecutive days, second only to the 42 days during the FTX collapse. Meanwhile, whales quietly scooped up 270,000 BTC over the past 30 days, worth approximately $18.7 billion. The number of addresses holding more than 100 BTC just hit a new all-time high at 20,031. At the same time, BTC reserves on exchanges have dropped to a 7-year low. Looking back at history, during the COVID period, the fear index dropped to 8, and 13 months later, BTC surged 1400%. During the FTX collapse, the index hit 10, and 12 months later, it rose 158%. When the fear index falls below 15, the probability of positive returns over the next 30 and 90 days is about 80%. I checked my own positions, then quietly closed the page.