金色财经|Mar 18, 2026 03:15
[Analysis: Bank of Japan Likely to Keep Benchmark Interest Rate Unchanged This Thursday, Focus Shifts to April]
Reported by Jinse Finance, on March 18, the market widely expects the Bank of Japan to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged this Thursday, as surging oil prices are complicating its efforts to achieve the 2% stable inflation target.
All 51 Bank of Japan observers surveyed anticipate that the BOJ committee will maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.75% when the two-day policy meeting concludes on Thursday. The BOJ typically announces its decision around midday on Thursday, followed by a press conference held by Governor Kazuo Ueda at 2:30 PM Beijing time.
A key focus for the market is whether the escalating conflict in Iran has made the BOJ sufficiently cautious to rule out the possibility of a rate hike at its next meeting in April. If the BOJ's statement includes strong language about heightened uncertainties or risks, it could signal a reduced likelihood of action next month. Traders currently estimate the probability of a rate hike by then to be around 60%.
According to informed sources, policymakers are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and evaluating a range of economic scenarios.
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