The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision for this month will be announced tomorrow. Currently, the futures market indicates a 99% probability of no change. As for next month’s meeting, the market currently sees a 97% probability of no change. The Fed’s impact on the market over the next two months is likely to be relatively limited. Below is a comprehensive analysis of the next two Fed meetings 🧵 1/ First, let’s look at the broader context: The March and April FOMC meetings could be a watershed moment for the crypto market this year. The current backdrop is extremely complex: the situation in the Middle East has caused energy prices to skyrocket, reigniting the risk of a resurgence in inflation (PCE), and the market has shifted from the “optimistic rate cut” sentiment at the beginning of the year to “Higher for Longer.” 2/ Key Dates: March 18: The market expects a 99% probability of no change (3.5%–3.75%). The focus is on the “dot plot”—there is a possibility of no rate cuts at all this year. April 29: The final critical meeting before Powell’s term ends (in May). His farewell speech may set the tone for liquidity in the second half of 2026. 3/ 📉 Direct Impact on BTC : Bitcoin is currently consolidating around 74,000, with the Greed Index at neutral levels. Hawkish Signal: If the dot plot indicates only one or even zero rate cuts in 2026, market expectations will decline, liquidity will tighten, and BTC will very likely retest the 68,000 support level. Dovish surprise: As long as Powell mentions “inflation under control” or “focus on the labor market,” improved liquidity expectations will directly push prices toward the 80,000 threshold. 4/ X Factor: Kevin Warsh—Trump’s nominee for the next Fed chair—has policy preferences that are even harder to predict than Powell’s. The market fears nothing more than a “policy vacuum” or a “hawkish transition.” Ahead of the April meeting, institutional investors may opt to sell off holdings as a risk-off move, leading to sharp volatility in altcoins. 5/ Strategy Recommendations: Don’t go all-in: Macro risks (the “Warsh effect” + energy inflation) have not yet fully materialized. Monitor exchange rates: If the DXY breaks above 106, crypto assets will face short-term pressure. Long-Term Positioning: The supply contraction effect following the halving persists; volatility presents entry opportunities for patient investors. 6/ Summary: The March meeting is about “tone,” while the April meeting is about “the handover.” In an uncertain macroeconomic environment, preserving capital is more important than trying to capture every price swing. Do you think the Fed will cut rates again this year? Let me know your thoughts in the comments! #BTC #Fed(Greeks.live)