The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision for this month will be announced at 2:00 am on Thursday. Currently, the futures market shows a 99% probability of remaining unchanged. The decision for next month's interest rate meeting is currently believed to have a 97% probability of remaining unchanged. The Federal Reserve's influence on the market in the next two months may be relatively limited. The following is a full analysis of the last two Federal Reserve interest rate meetings 1/Let's first look at the background: The FOMC meetings in March and April may be a watershed for the cryptocurrency market this year. The current context is extremely complex: the situation in the Middle East has led to soaring energy prices, the risk of inflation (PCE) rebounding has reignited, and the market has shifted from the "optimistic interest rate cut" at the beginning of the year to the "Higher for Longer". 2/Key time points: On March 19th, the market expects a 99% probability of not taking action (3.5% -3.75%). The focus is on the "dot matrix" - there is a possibility of interest rate cuts this year April 29th: Powell's final crucial meeting before the end of his term in May. His farewell speech may set the tone for liquidity in the second half of 2026. 3/ The direct impact on BTC: Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating around 74000, and the Greed Index is neutral. Hawkish signal: If the dot plot shows only one or even zero interest rate cuts in 2026, market expectations will decrease, liquidity will tighten, and BTC is highly likely to backtrack at the 68000 support level. Pigeon Surprise: As long as Powell mentions "controllable inflation" or "paying attention to the labor market", the improvement in liquidity expectations will directly impact the 800000 mark. 4/X variable: Kevin Warsh, the soon to be new chairman nominated by Trump, has more unpredictable policy preferences than Powell. The market is most afraid of a 'policy vacuum period' or a 'hawkish shift change'. Prior to the April meeting, institutional funds may choose to hedge and sell, leading to significant fluctuations in altcoins. 5/Strategic suggestion: Don't hold back: Macro risks (Warsh effect+energy inflation) have not yet been exhausted. Pay attention to exchange rates: If DXY breaks through 106, cryptocurrency assets will face short-term pressure. Long term layout: The supply compression effect after halving is still present, and volatility is a ticket for patience. 6/Summary: The March meeting focuses on "attitude", while the April meeting focuses on "handover". In an uncertain macro environment, maintaining capital is more important than seizing every fluctuation. Do you think the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again this year? Tell me your opinion in the comment section! BTC Federal Reserve