Totally agree with what @欧文兄 said. Right now, the actual conflict between Iran and the U.S. hasn’t eased up—in fact, it’s escalating. But oil prices are fluctuating within a very narrow range and haven’t reflected the war situation, mainly because of the oil released by the IEA. However, this release of strategic reserves is limited, lasting anywhere from a few weeks to a few months. If the conflict doesn’t end before the reserves are depleted, or if there’s news of significant reserve consumption, market risks could spill over into other commodities. At that point, oil hitting $120 or even higher could happen in an instant. Currently, institutions going long on oil are already at a high point, as they’re anticipating that the war might not end quickly.