陈剑Jason
陈剑Jason|Mar 16, 2026 23:47
Actually, no one has controlled the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. After all, it is a narrow waterway with a length of 33 kilometers, and it is not located inland in any country. No one can pull a warning line or set up a gate on the strait like the physical understanding of the word "blockade" that everyone imagines. Why are there no ships that can pass through now? It is not a country that blocks the Strait of Hormuz, but an insurance company. Ordinary ship insurance has a war exclusion clause, which means that if losses occur due to war, no compensation will be given. But what if my oil tanker is forced to pass through a war zone? The Joint War Committee (JWC) regularly releases a war list, which requires additional war risk for all areas included. The normal insurance premium is 0.01% of the ship's value, but now the war risk through the Strait of Hormuz has skyrocketed to 3%, and it will be even higher for ships flying the flags of the United States, Britain, and Israel. A $200 million oil tanker alone has a premium of $6 million, and the profit from a normal voyage is only $2 million, which is not even enough to buy insurance. So a few days ago, Trump called on these ships to bravely rush over, and the US government personally established a $20 billion special insurance, using its own funds to subsidize insurance premiums for cruise ships from the national treasury, which is to give cruise ships the courage to solve their biggest insurance problem. But 20 billion is simply a drop in the bucket. According to normal times, 20 million barrels of crude oil are transported every day, and not including the ship itself, the value of goods in half a month is already 20 billion US dollars. So Iran doesn't need and can't block the Strait of Hormuz, just make some small moves, release a mine, fly a drone, and ask the insurance company to increase the war risk. So theoretically, all Gulf countries or any country in the world have the ability to 'blockade' the Strait of Hormuz.
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