The rise in oil prices has changed expectations of interest rate cuts, and a Federal Reserve option bet has made a profit of $10 million. On March 16th, according to Golden Ten Data, the significant increase in oil prices this month and the market's expectation of loose policies from the Federal Reserve have led to a profit of $10 million in an option trading targeting short-term interest rates. This bet is placed in January in the form of options related to the guaranteed overnight funding rate, which is closely related to the policy trend of the Federal Reserve. The position data released by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group on Monday, covering Friday trading, showed that the selling of the option over the weekend last week was consistent with the profitable closing of the position. This bet existed even before the outbreak of war in the Middle East, indicating that the Federal Reserve's interest rate level in mid-2028 will be higher than the widely expected level in January. Last week, the bet turned losses into profits as the conflict caused crude oil prices to rise to their highest level since 2022, raising concerns about inflation and prompting traders to expect the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period of time.