The Iran war disrupts prospects, the Federal Reserve is under dual pressure, and a fierce battle between hawks and doves is imminent Odaily Planet Daily News: Federal Reserve officials will hold a meeting this week, and their policy outlook has been disrupted against the backdrop of the Iran war causing one-fifth of global oil supply to stagnate. Officials will discuss whether this conflict is more likely to disrupt economic growth, trigger more persistent inflation, or create a complex situation of economic slowdown and rising prices. Considering that the supply shock during the pandemic led to the Federal Reserve failing to achieve its 2% inflation target for five consecutive years, policymakers are more likely to adopt a cautious attitude this week and may even directly send hawkish signals. The current inflation rate is still about 1 percentage point higher than the target and is expected to further rise, especially in the context of sustained high oil prices that have surged nearly 50% in the past two weeks. Officials must also weigh whether this emerging economic shock is expected to not only lead to price increases, but also tighten financial conditions, lower asset prices, and increase uncertainty as a trigger for breaking economic resilience. The market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at this week's policy meeting. The data since the last meeting shows that the basic outlook has hardly changed, and the Federal Reserve is in a leadership transition phase - Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump, is expected to be confirmed by the Senate and take over the Fed from current Chairman Powell in mid May. However, Federal Reserve officials will still submit new economic forecasts, trying to determine whether the future situation requires a firm fight against inflation by maintaining a tight monetary policy, or offsetting the impact of economic slowdown by cutting interest rates. (Golden Ten)