Damn it! Polymarket's biggest misconception: You think you're trading, but in fact, you've been giving money to others all along! The biggest weakness of Polymarket is not simply losing money. But you have been losing money all along, always thinking that you only need one big one to turn things around. Someone dug up data from 112000 addresses over the past six months and found that 87.3% of the addresses ended up losing money. This indicates one thing: Most people don't make occasional mistakes. It was wrong in terms of gameplay. The 1% who truly make money doesn't have any mysterious formula. There's no insider information. There are no immortal models. It's about repeatedly doing a few things over a long period of time. There's nothing wrong with the rest of the ordinary people, it's just that the core gameplay of this game is to lose money! 1 First, let's talk about the easiest place to deceive people. The ranking list of Polymarket is highly misleading. Many people, upon opening the list and seeing the top few earning frighteningly, instinctively feel: Awesome This is the master. I want to study how these people do it. But the problem is that many high PnL addresses have an extremely low number of transactions. Someone has opened over twenty positions. Someone rushed up with a few big strokes. This kind of money, ordinary people cannot learn. You can't learn their size. I can't even learn from their sources. What is truly valuable can only be judged by having enough transactions, living long enough, and not relying on a divine address. 2 People who make money don't have as high a winning rate as you think. Many wallets that make long-term money have a winning rate of 55% to 67%. The key is not 'almost never making mistakes'. The key point is: Don't die if you're wrong. By the way, earn more. Newcomers love to buy a 0.90 YES because they feel it's stable. Actually, the most disappointing. You take 0.90 to earn 0.10. If you make a mistake once, you will waste many of the previous attempts. So many people don't lose in judgment. It's losing in trades that seem safe but actually have terrible odds. 3 People who truly make money usually only work on 1 to 2 tracks, up to a maximum of 3. Because the information structures behind encryption, politics, weather, and sports are not the same thing at all. You made BTC today. Tomorrow is the general election. Doing geopolitics the day after tomorrow. This is not called comprehensive. This is called getting a little involved in everything, and in the end, nothing can be done deeply. The market reward is never 'knowing a little bit'. You are in a corner, really understanding a little more than others. 4 People who truly make money are not swayed by emotions They like to wait for the market to distort. A contract was surged to 88%, and everyone felt it was stable, so they started selling instead. A price was smashed to 12%, and the whole audience was too lazy to watch, so they slowly picked it up. Not for the sake of pretending. It's because human betting is always a problem: Popular items are always bought expensive. Outsiders will always be sold cheap. So experts don't like to act recklessly. They are waiting for the odds to go wrong. If you don't give edge, don't do it. 5 Position management is the real watershed. People who make money bind their positions to their advantages. Having a big advantage means having a large position. The advantage is average, just light warehouse. No advantage, just empty the warehouse. People who lose money usually have two ways to die: One type is a top mounted, heavy warehouse shuttlecock. One is to pretend to be dispersed, with dozens of markets scattering money everywhere. The former is betting on dogs. The latter is a busy gambling dog. There is no difference in essence. 6 There is another key point. Many times, experts do not trade based on the outcome. It's price fluctuations. Buy it at 0.40. Emotionally, the price surged to 0.65. Sell directly. leave. Whether the final event occurred or not is not important. Just give me the price, that's enough. Many people lose money because they want to prove themselves right and insist on getting the settlement. But the market doesn't care if you're right or not. The market only cares about whether you will die or not. 7 When sudden news first comes out, it is often not the best place to get on the bus. At that time, it was the most crowded. The most expensive. The easiest to connect. There are usually only two good times: When the market hasn't reacted yet. Or when the market has already overreacted. When the whole internet is chatting, the meat is basically gone. 8 So those who truly make money, to put it bluntly, only do these few things: Only do the track that you truly understand. Don't blindly believe in winning rates, focus on the odds structure. Only sell when the price is clearly wrong. The position is tied to the advantage, and if there is no edge, the position will be empty. Don't treat trading as faith, just leave with price and profit. 9 Most of the people who lose money on Polymarket are those who operate recklessly Itchy hands. FOMO。 I want to do anything. The position fluctuates between large and small. Even without an advantage, it's hard to get ahead. And the group of people who really make money may even seem a bit bored. No fuss. Not chasing. Not proving oneself. Just more like a trader than most people, not as much like a gambling dog. The biggest illusion of Polymarket is right here. You think you're trading. In fact, many times, you are just looking for a more dignified way to give money to others.