Tonight at 8:30, we will release some economic data and share it briefly! Blue box: relatively friendly to us, red box: not very friendly to us. Let's talk about the red box first! 1: The annual expectation for the core PCE price index in the United States in January is 3.1%, and it did not exceed 2.9% for the entire year from February to November 2025. The value announced in December was only 3%! If it meets expectations this time, it will directly break through the annual high of 2025 and reach a new high, and the stickiness of inflation will be directly confirmed. It will be even more difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. 2: The January JOLTS job vacancies in the United States (10000 people) need no further explanation, as they directly reflect the core indicator of the tightness of the job market. The higher the number of vacancies, the tighter the labor market, the greater the pressure of wage increases, the harder it is to control inflation, and hawkish expectations are directly inflated. 3: The initial estimate of the US one-year inflation rate for March is really explosive! Throughout 2025, it has been declining, and this time expectations are expected to rebound. Inflation expectations rise=The market believes that prices will continue to rise in the future, and the Federal Reserve must firmly anchor expectations for interest rates, which is negative for risk assets. Say more about the blue box! 1: The expected monthly personal expenditure rate for January in the United States is 0.3%, lower than the previous value of 0.4%. Meeting expectations is a good thing, falling below expectations is even better! The higher the monthly expenditure rate, the more intense the consumption and the higher the price burden, which is less conducive to interest rate cuts; Conversely, the cooling down of expenditures is what we want to see. 2: The initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for March in the United States and the monthly personal expenditure rate are a logical reflection of consumption. The stronger the consumer confidence, the more likely it is that people feel that their income is stable and they are willing to spend money, the stronger the economic resilience, and there is no reason for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates; So the lower this data, the more friendly it is to us. Finally, let me say: The content does not constitute investment advice! Data is all hierarchical, and we can make a rough judgment on the impact logic, but the real impact is quite complex. There is a saying that goes: Society is simple, but people are complex. So it also depends on the overall market's interpretation of the data (i.e. economists, investment bank analysts, etc.), relying solely on the surface of the data cannot be the final decision for our trading! There is no distinction between important and unimportant data today, they are all important! However, some data impacts come quickly, while others are reflected slowly, but they will directly hit the doorstep of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, thereby affecting our trading market. PCE Crypto Bitcoin DXY