Analysis: Bitcoin sales drop to cycle low, on chain model shows market entering accumulation stage Odaily Planet Daily News: On chain analysis models show that the current network selling pressure of Bitcoin has dropped to a cycle low, and the market is in a clear accumulation stage. The last time the 'allocation signal' was triggered for the Sell side Risk Ratio was in December 2024, when the price of Bitcoin was around $107000, and the signal has not appeared since then. The data shows that the current selling pressure level has dropped to about one sixth of the cycle average, and related indicators have even reproduced the level during the bear market period of 2022-2023 (when BTC prices were around $16000 to $20000). The model divides this cycle into two stages: the "strong allocation stage" from November to December 2024, with prices ranging from 64000 to 107000 US dollars; The second is the current re-entry into the 'accumulation stage'. The Sell side Risk Ratio is used to measure the profit taking activity of market participants relative to the overall cost base of the entire network. When the indicator exceeds the adaptive upper threshold, an allocation signal will be triggered, indicating that the seller dominates the market; When the indicator falls below the lower threshold, an accumulation signal is triggered, indicating extremely low selling pressure. The data shows that the allocation signal for this cycle lasted for 37 days, covering the main range of BTC's rise from $64000 to $107000. Since the signal was closed on December 17, 2024, the market has not seen any allocation signals for approximately 449 consecutive days. Meanwhile, the 180 day rolling average Sell side Risk Ratio has decreased from 3210 to 1913 over the past 60 days, a decrease of 1297 points, and continues to decline at a rate of approximately 20 points per day. In history, the range of 1500 to 2000 usually corresponds to the selling pressure levels in 2019 (BTC around $3000-6000) and the mid bear market of 2022-2023 (BTC around $16000-20000), but currently BTC prices are still in the range of around $67000 to $72000, indicating a clear structural divergence. Analysis suggests that this means that early holders who hoarded at low prices have completed large-scale profit taking in the $64000 to $107000 range, while holders who did not sell in that range are currently choosing to continue holding. The model suggests that only when the Bitcoin price stabilizes at $100000 to $110000 and is accompanied by large-scale profit taking, can new allocation signals be triggered again. Overall, on chain indicators indicate that the allocation phase of this cycle has ended and the market has returned to an accumulation state. At present, the overall judgment of the market by the model is "neutral biased accumulation", but without new price catalysts, the market may face a prolonged period of volatile consolidation.