Dan Gambardello
Dan Gambardello|Mar 12, 2026 23:17
I’ve been talking about the post-QT dip for a while now. We’re in it. That part of the thesis is playing out. But if the global escalations and the Middle East situation does not end very soon (days), it seems like it could be accelerating our volatility window. This does not change where I genuinely think this is going, but it could make the road there a lot rougher than I originally thought. And to be clear, I still think we’re in the end of a bear market. That hasn’t changed. I just think the end of the bear market might not be very pleasant…something more like 2020, where you can really feel it. If you go back to 2019, QT ended, crypto started accumulating, things were looking good on the charts. Then March 2020 happened. COVID wiped everything out before the macro could fully play out. I’m not saying we get a COVID repeat. But I am saying the setup right now is unexpectedly similar. It’s actually crazy…We’re in the post-QT normalization phase, the business cycle is showing early signs of turning, and now we have an external shock that could create capitulation before the boom actually kicks in. Things could get worse before they get better. This is not me turning “bearish” on crypto, but it is me just being prepared. The macro thesis hasn’t changed. But the path to get there might include a stop that tests every crypto holder.
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