This is a professional chemical analysis report based on the current industry situation, technological roadmap, and recent geopolitical black swan events (the US Iran War) in 2026. Global olefin and aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain and geopolitical impact analysis report (2026) summary This article breaks down the supply and demand logic of bulk olefins and aromatics by comparing coal based and oil-based process pathways. Quantitatively analyze the impact intensity of geopolitics on the chemical industry chain, taking into account the outbreak of the US Iran conflict in early 2026. 1、 Industrial Chain Technology Path: Oil Production vs. Coal Production 1. Olefins Industry Chain (Ethylene&Propylene) Olefins are the cornerstone of the chemical industry, mainly including ethylene, propylene, and others. Oil to olefin (Naphtha Cracking): Process: Steam cracking of naphtha. Advantages: Extremely mature technology, abundant by-products (including butadiene, aromatics, etc.), suitable for large-scale refining and chemical integration. Disadvantage: Strong correlation with international oil prices. When crude oil exceeds $70/bbl, competitiveness begins to decline. Coal to olefin (CTO/MTO): Process: coal \ rightarrow synthesis gas \ rightarrow methanol \ rightarrow olefins. Advantages: Low cost and stable supply of raw materials (especially in coal rich regions such as northwest China). Has a strong profit defensive ability during oil price fluctuations. Disadvantages: Extremely high carbon emissions (about 2-3 times that of oil-based), huge investment density, and high water consumption. 2. Aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain (BTX: Benzene, Toluene, Xylene) Aromatic hydrocarbons are the source of synthetic fibers, plastics, and high-performance materials. Catalytic Reforming: The main pathway is to convert naphtha into aromatic rich components through a reformer. Currently, it holds over 90% of the global market share. Characteristics: Production is highly positively correlated with refinery operating rates and is subject to competition from gasoline blending demand (toluene/xylene can increase octane rating). Coal to aromatics (MTA): Main pathway: Coal based synthesis gas is converted into methanol, which further catalyzes aromatization. Current situation: Although Chinese companies such as Baofeng Energy have achieved technological breakthroughs, they still belong to the "niche path" in 2026, mainly serving as an efficiency supplement to the coal based industry chain, and have not yet shaken the dominant position of the petroleum based industry. 2、 Classification and sorting of bulk chemical products Based on transaction scale and downstream applications, the core bulk categories for 2026 are as follows: Olefins (core: PE polyethylene, PP polypropylene) Mainly flowing into terminal fields such as packaging, home appliances, automobiles, and photovoltaics (EVA). This type of variety is closely related to macroeconomic trends and is often regarded as an important indicator of economic activity. Aromatic hydrocarbons (core: PX para xylene, BZ pure benzene) It is mainly used to produce PTA (to support the textile polyester industry chain) and styrene derivatives (such as EPS foam and ABS plastics). This type of variety is significantly affected by refinery production schedules and has obvious seasonal characteristics during the peak textile season. Intermediate (core: MEG ethylene glycol, EB styrene) Located in the middle of the industrial chain, it connects downstream with polyester bottle sheets, synthetic rubber, and high-performance engineering plastics. This type of product is extremely active in the trading market and is a core commodity with huge delivery volume in the futures market. 3、 War Impact: The Pricing Logic of the US Iran Conflict on the Bulk Market The US Iran conflict that erupted at the end of February 2026 is a typical 'supply side extreme stress test'. 1. The most affected category: Oil to Petrochemicals (PE, PP, PTA, PX) Direct impact path: The Strait of Hormuz (a necessary passage for 30% of global crude oil and a large amount of Middle Eastern petrochemical exports) is facing a blockade. Price increase forecast: It is expected that the price of related petrochemical products may soar by 20% -35% in a short period of time, driven by the jump in crude oil prices to $100- $120/bbl. Supply and demand imbalance point: Polyethylene (PE). The Middle East is one of the most important net export areas for global PE, and the blockade of the strait will directly cut off low-priced goods from Asia and Europe. 2. The varieties with the most severe supply-demand imbalance: ethylene glycol (MEG) and PX Ethylene glycol (MEG): The low-cost advantage of Middle Eastern ethane based MEG makes it the core of global trade flows. If the strait is cut off, there will be a supply gap of over 25% in the Asian market. Paraxylene (PX): Although China's self-sufficiency rate in PX is high, the significant increase in crude oil import costs will force up prices due to cost support, resulting in downstream PTA companies experiencing "negative gross profit shutdowns" and triggering inflationary pressure across the entire textile industry chain. 3. Hedge premium of coal chemical industry: the "dividend period" of enterprises such as Baofeng In the context of war, the "valuation gap" between coal chemical and oil chemical industries will quickly widen: Cost decoupling: Coal prices are protected by domestic long-term agreements and relatively stable; Oil prices have skyrocketed. Substitution effect: When the price of oil-based PE/PP loses competitiveness due to the sharp rise in raw materials, coal based products will fill the market gap and obtain excess profits (Windfall Profit). 4、 Conclusion and Suggestions Core judgment: The 2026 US Iran War will lead to The aromatic hydrocarbon chain (especially PX/PTA) has experienced a severe cost driven increase that is almost irreplaceable, The olefin chain (PE/MEG) has been replaced by coal chemical industry due to the cost advantage of coal quality, resulting in a sharp increase in profits and almost unchanged costs in coal chemical industry. The above is generated from a conversation with Gemini. Alkenes are equivalent to constant costs and a sharp increase in profits for coal chemical industry. Therefore, Baofeng Energy, which specializes in coal chemical industry, has continuously hit the daily limit up since the first day of the war. It is still a professional institution. We only later realized these reasons behind the chives. Pure benzene is the first aromatic hydrocarbon, so I wanted to verify it and opened a bulk order of pure benzene 2605.