链研社|AI First🔶💧
链研社|AI First🔶💧|Mar 11, 2026 15:12
Circle wants to become the central bank of the AI era While everyone is still chasing opportunities in the AI application layer, Circle has quietly completed the positioning of its AI payment infrastructure. On March 10th, Circle's stock price broke through $110, doubling from the low point of the year. The logic given by the capital market is simple: it is not just about doing the business of "stablecoins", but also about doing the business of "AI era settlement networks", which is currently an advantage Financial report shows revenue explosion, profitability verification Circle's latest quarterly financial report (Q4 2025) shows astonishing growth potential: -Revenue: 770 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 77% -EBITDA: 167 million US dollars, a year-on-year surge of 412% -Profit margin: 54% - this is the profitability of mature Internet companies -USDC circulation: 75.3 billion US dollars, an annual increase of 72% -On chain transaction volume: 11.9 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 247% More importantly, Circle's market share in stablecoin trading volume has climbed from 39% to nearly 50%. This means that for every two stablecoin transactions, one is completed using USDC. Behind these numbers is a self reinforcing business model: the larger the circulation, the higher the reserve income, the higher the profit, the more infrastructure investment, and more institutions use USDC. AI agent payment may be an overlooked trillion dollar track There is an easily overlooked data in the financial report: in the past 9 months, 400000 AI agents have completed 140 million USDC payments. What is the average per transaction? 0.31 US dollars. This is precisely the core pain point of the AI economy. The cost of processing a $0.31 transfer in traditional payment systems may exceed the transaction itself. Bank wire transfers and credit card settlements - these financial infrastructures designed for humans are simply unable to support the massive amount of micro payments between AI agents. What did Circle do? 1. MCP protocol integration, allowing AI tools such as Claude and cursor to directly embed USDC payment logic 2. CCTP cross chain protocol, with USDC transfer fees of less than 1 cent on L2 platforms such as Base and Solana 3. Collaborate with Google to integrate Google's Agentic payment standard CEO Jeremy Allaire said during the earnings call: 'The world will enter a new era of billions of AI agents interacting economically through the internet.' This narrative is the core of Circle's valuation reconstruction. Arc platform: AI native payment network In 2026, Circle will launch the Arc platform - an "operating system" specifically designed for the AI economy. Core parameters: -Single transaction cost: 0.00001 USD -Support AI agents to autonomously program and execute cross chain USDC transactions -Goal: Make AI agents send money like sending emails What does this mean? Nowadays, an AI agent calling APIs, paying computing power fees, and purchasing data all require manual intervention for settlement. future? AI agents can complete the entire economic cycle on their own: making money → spending money → making money again. This is the prototype of the machine to machine (M2M) economy. Market pricing: just starting out Current Circle: -Stock price: $118 -Market value: $28 billion -52 week high: $299 -Bernstein target price: $190 (70% upside potential) Falling 75% from the high point, but calculated from the low point at the beginning of the year, it has rebounded by over 100%. The attitude of the institution is very clear: buy The logic is also very clear: 1. USDC maintains 40% CAGR growth (management guidance) 2. AI Agent Payment is a pure incremental market 3. Regulatory benefits - With the imminent passage of the US stablecoin bill, Circle is the biggest beneficiary of compliance Why is this the 'central bank of the digital economy era' Reviewing the evolution of Circle: -2013: P2P payment company -2018: Joint issuance of USDC -2025: Listed on the New York Stock Exchange -2026: AI payment infrastructure From 'human payment tools' to' AI settlement networks' - this is no longer the valuation logic of a stablecoin company, but a valuation logic of AI native financial infrastructure. When AI agents need to spend money, earn money, and manage finances on their own, they do not use credit cards or open bank accounts. They will use USDC. And Circle is already the only 'central bank' on this track
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