Goldman Sachs Warns of Potential "Extreme" Stock Market Surge

According to a report by Jinse Finance, John Flood of Goldman Sachs pointed out that if positive news materializes, hedge fund positioning could propel the stock market to soar significantly. Speculative long positions have reached a total exposure of 307%, while there is substantial shorting of ETFs and index futures, creating notable upside tail risks. A ceasefire in the Iran conflict or the release of positive news could trigger macro short covering, driving indices up by 2%–3%. Due to geopolitical conflicts, the AI sector, credit concerns, and low liquidity, market volatility remains elevated, while corporate buybacks provide support for the stock market. Flood emphasized that the market urgently needs clear signals of easing; otherwise, it will face further pressure.