TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|3月 11, 2026 11:53
The CPI data is about to be released at 8:30, and the logic is similar to last week's big non-farm payroll data. Right now, the global spotlight is still on the Iran conflict. This CPI, as the last unaffected data before the war, can actually serve as a benchmark. Everyone knows very well that next month's data will inevitably skyrocket due to the impact of oil prices. So, this time's data becomes the last pure observation of the U.S. economy. Looking at last Friday's absurdly high non-farm payroll data, if: 1. CPI is significantly higher than expected, it confirms stagflation expectations, and risk markets might perform poorly. 2. CPI meets expectations or cools slightly, the market reaction won't be big, and the focus will remain on the Iran war, continuing the war logic. 3. If CPI unexpectedly cools significantly, then according to conventional logic, it supports rate cut expectations, and the market might continue yesterday's rebound trend. So, let's hope for a cooling data below expectations, so we can enjoy a couple more good days before next month's inflation data spikes due to soaring oil prices.
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