What are the consequences of Iran laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz? According to media reports, Iran has started laying mines in the strait on a small scale, with dozens of mines laid in recent days. It's hard to say whether the asymmetric blockade against oil tankers will shift to physical blockade, or whether mines will be used to completely block the strait from time to time in the future? But the situation has also reached a critical point now. As discussed in last week's article, https://((x.com))/qinba frank/status/2029141935550525781? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， For the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, it is entirely possible to rely on geographical advantages to achieve the blockade in the short term, but the United States and Trump in the medium and long term. Let's talk about logic: 1. If Iran did use mines to completely block the Strait of Hormuz, it would be equivalent to throwing out its own strongest Rocket. In the short term, both sides have no way out, especially for the United States and Israel. Even Gulf countries have no way out. But there is no doubt that Iran is still gaining the upper hand in the Strait of Hormuz in the short term; 2. Trump used to be a rat eater and the oil price was the same. If Hormuz is completely physically sealed off, the only thing that cannot be changed in the short term is to work hard. The Ford aircraft carrier has already started transporting the THAAD system deployed in South Korea to the Middle East in the northern Red Sea, and it may take two to three days to transport and debug it. The Ford moved from the Red Sea to the northern part of the Arabian Sea, which is estimated to take only one or two days. The deployment of new military forces is in place, and the attack intensity may increase significantly again. If the US military were to take strong action: 1) The core and main source of income for Iran are oil fields located along the southwestern coast of the Persian Gulf, which are the most vulnerable areas to attacks; 2) Attacking Iran's shadow fleet, according to information from MarineTraffic, Windward, or UANI tank trackers, the majority of Iran's shadow fleet is still located around the Persian Gulf. Iran relies on imports for 30% of its food and the vast majority of its potash fertilizer, leading to internal material issues. 3) Even strong control over some islands in the Strait of Hormuz is not impossible; In the short term, modern warfare depends on tactics, strategies, and resistance will, while in the long term, it depends on inventory depth and military production capacity; 3. This will accelerate the proposal to release strategic oil reserves by member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) https://(((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/2030959983521911041? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A has been discussed, and this plan is to release 300 million to 400 million barrels, which can make up for the crude oil gap caused by the interruption of the Strait of Hormuz in 15-20 days (under normal circumstances, the strait transports 20 million barrels of oil per day). If the proposal is passed, it means that there will be no substantial shortage of crude oil supply within three weeks. The biggest impact of the complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is on the Gulf countries, Japan and South Korea, and the United States, which are the largest oil producing countries and net exporters of crude oil (the rise in oil prices affects people's livelihoods but does not affect supply). The practical impact on China is also significant. Perhaps it's not what China wants to see. 4. Yesterday here https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2031180024133595483? S=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A Talking about Trump's signal release and Iran's future response? But not immediately, there are still many variables in the middle that require time. Even so, it still looks optimistic now. Iran, dominated by hardliners, will only take action in two situations, as previously discussed: either being subdued or experiencing domestic instability (which affects the stability of the regime). If Iran completely blockades the Strait of Hormuz in the future, it will actually force the United States to launch a fierce attack in the short term (which is already a bit like this, and if it cannot be changed, it will have a taste of force). During the most intense period of the situation, we may have to let go and fight. If the market determines that the strait is truly completely blocked, it will be around that time point when market uncertainty is highest, as the market may interpret the most pessimistic expectations and scenarios. But if the US military makes progress in the future and suppresses Iran more strongly, the uncertainty will gradually weaken. This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'