Phyrex|Mar 10, 2026 19:31
Cross-platform arbitrage mechanism — Polymarket + Kalshi
The essence is to find different prices for the same content, and the smaller the total adds up to less than 100, the greater the arbitrage opportunity.
For example, the title '2026 GDP Growth' appears on both Polymarket and Kalshi, but if you look closely, you’ll notice there’s a significant price spread.
On Kalshi:
Buy all ranges above 2.6%:
2.6–3.0 (16¢) + 3.1–3.5 (9¢) + 3.6–4.0 (6¢) + 4.1–4.5 (5¢) + 4.6–5.0 (3¢) + 5.1–5.5 (2¢) + 5.6–6.0 (2¢) + 6.1+ (1¢)
Total cost (buy-in): 44¢
On Polymarket:
Look at the >2.5% option and buy 'No': price is 42¢
The concept here is to bet on Polymarket that 2026 GDP growth will be less than 2.5%, while on Kalshi, you bet that 2026 GDP growth will be greater than 2.5%, creating a hedge.
Total investment cost: 44¢ (Kalshi) + 42¢ (Polymarket) = 86¢
Profit margin: 14¢ / 86¢ ≈ 16.3% ROI
Of course, you also need to consider fees, but overall, this is profitable.
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