[CICC: The Risk of U.S. 'Quasi-Stagflation' Further Intensifies] Deep Tide TechFlow reports that on March 10, according to Jintou Data, CICC stated in its 2026 macro outlook report that the greatest risk facing the U.S. economy is 'quasi-stagflation.' A series of recent developments indicate that this judgment is gradually being validated and further reinforced. On one hand, the U.S.-Iran conflict has driven up oil prices, coupled with inflationary drivers increasingly shifting toward structural factors, which may lead to sustained inflationary stickiness. On the other hand, the substitution effect of AI on white-collar jobs is beginning to emerge, suppressing employment expansion momentum. Meanwhile, risks in private credit are continuously escalating; once the industry enters a clearing phase, financial conditions may tighten accordingly, thereby dragging down economic growth. On the policy front, the Federal Reserve faces a dilemma. CICC believes the timing for rate cuts may be postponed to the second half of the year. The stimulative effect of tax cuts has been partially offset by tariff hikes and the rising savings propensity of residents, resulting in actual economic boosts potentially falling short of expectations. Against this backdrop, it is expected that U.S. economic growth will slow, risk premiums in capital markets will trend upward, and capital allocation logic may shift from chasing returns to focusing more on risk aversion.