OIL SURGE CLOUDS FED RATE CUT OUTLOOK Rising oil prices pose the biggest risk to the inflation outlook, says Jonathan Miller of Barclays. The bank still expects the Federal Reserve to deliver two 25bp rate cuts in June and December, but warns oil is a key wildcard. A 10% oil rise could lift inflation by about 0.2 percentage points within months. Barclays now sees December 2026 CPI at 2.7%, while recent data still points to a stable labor market and gradually slowing consumer spending.(*Walter Bloomberg)