The oil price has gone up his mother! But what really needs to be monitored may not be oil. Damn it, I woke up early this morning and the oil price took off directly! Brent crude oil briefly broke through 120 this morning You should know that when it opened yesterday, it was only over 80 Then it rose for a day and reached 90 It's already 120 today, it seems like I can't control myself anymore No wonder Trump spoke directly to India last night Allow India to buy Russian oil and resell it to other countries Maybe this is just a case of emergency seeking medical attention I can come up with any trick to keep the oil price down Because once oil prices get out of control The following inflation, interest rate, finance and war financing are all contrary to what Trump hopes Last night, the Minneapolis Fed Chairman warned the Fed not to repeat the misjudgment of inflation caused by the Russia Ukraine war! The implication is that the Federal Reserve does not want to cut interest rates But I think the impact of oil on inflation has been a topic of discussion for the last century The most important strategic resource in the world now has someone else. one Oil is still important, but it is no longer the ultimate resource Over the past century, wars have largely revolved around oil. Why did Japan go to Pearl Harbor during World War II? Because the United States directly blocked Japan's oil supply. At that time, 80% of Japan's oil was dependent on the United States. Once the supply is cut off, the entire industrial system in Japan will come to a halt. So at that time, whoever controlled the oil controlled the war. This logic lasted for a whole century. Until today, once oil prices skyrocket, the whole world will still shake along. two But the truly scarce resources of the 21st century have already been replaced The problem is that many war capabilities are no longer determined by oil. But relying on something else: Silicon. To put it more bluntly: Chip. drone Missile guidance Satellite image analysis Intelligence identification Battlefield deduction These things are not backed by oil. Relying on: Computing power+semiconductor. Oil provides fuel. Chips provide the brain. three War is shifting from a 'firepower game' to an 'algorithm game' What did we fight in wars before? tank aircraft carrier Hundreds of thousands of ground troops What is it becoming more and more like now? AI analysis: personnel movement Weapon deployment communication network satellite imagery Then calculate an optimal strike plan. When will we start Who to hit How to hit most effectively War is becoming a: A highly computerized system. Many times, it's not about who is more ruthless. But who is it: More accurate calculation. four The real great power game has changed course Many people still understand geopolitics in the language of the old world: petroleum aircraft carrier missile strait These are certainly important. But today's real great power competition is actually on another line: Chips, computing power AI。 Why is the United States desperately restricting the export of advanced chips? Why is TSMC becoming increasingly important as a strategic asset? Why is ASML's lithography machine considered a national level technology? The reason is simple: Whoever controls the most advanced silicon will control future warfare capabilities. Oil remains a hard currency. But silicon is becoming a higher-level hard currency. five So the real problem is here Every time oil prices skyrocket, the market's first reaction is always: Buy oil. But if future wars increasingly rely on AI and computing power, The real strategic resource may not be oil wells. But rather: chip computing power AI infrastructure semiconductor equipment let me put it another way: Oil was a strategic resource of the Old World. Silicon is the oil of the new world. The surge in oil prices to 120 is certainly frightening. But if we look back ten years, What truly determines a country's strength may not be oil fields. But rather a wafer fab.